In a historic shift, Muslim and Arab Americans broke with two decades of Democratic loyalty, splitting most of their votes between President-elect Donald Trump and third-party candidates in Tuesday’s presidential election, according to preliminary findings of two prominent advocacy groups.
The exodus, fueled by anger over the Biden administration’s handling of the war in Gaza, helped Trump win key battleground states, especially Michigan, as he defeated Vice President Kamala Harris to win a second term in the White House.
A nationwide exit poll of more than 1,300 voters by the Council on American Islamic Relations (CAIR) found that significantly less than 50% of Muslim voters backed Harris. That compares with an estimated 65% to 70% that reportedly voted for President Joe Biden in 2020.
The lion’s share of the Muslim vote went to Jill Stein, the Green Party candidate who advocated for ending U.S. military support for Israel, or Trump, who received the backing of several Arab and Muslim community leaders and elected officials in Michigan.
A full picture of the Muslim vote is yet to emerge. The CAIR survey was at odds with the Associated Press’s Votecast survey, which found the vice president captured 63% of Muslim votes overall.
But voting patterns found by the CAIR poll marked a sharp departure from the last 20 years during which Muslim Americans had overwhelmingly supported the Democratic ticket, according to Robert McCaw, CAIR’s director of government affairs.
“This is the first time in more than 20 years that the Muslim community has been split between three candidates,” McCaw said in an interview with VOA.
The shift in the Muslim vote echoed among Arab American voters, who had backed Democratic presidential nominees over Republican candidates 2-to-1 for more than two decades, said James Zogby, president of the Arab American Institute.
The group did not do an exit poll. But going into the election, its polling indicated that the Arab vote would be split 42% to 41% between Trump and Harris, and Zogby said the election result likely reflected that chasm.
“Gaza took a toll and caused a great deal of dissatisfaction among demographic groups in the community that I wouldn't have expected to have that degree of impact,” Zogby told VOA. “What they saw happening in Gaza impacted them quite profoundly.”
An estimated 3.7 million Americans trace their heritage to Arab countries, and a similar number is classified as Muslim Americans. Both groups are exceedingly diverse, and not every Arab and Muslim American, whether conservative or progressive, fits neatly into a category.
Strong revolt seen in Michigan
But the voter revolt among Arab and Muslim Americans in Michigan was unmistakable, especially in the areas of Dearborn, Dearborn Heights, and Hamtramck.
In Dearborn, where more than 55% of the residents are of Middle Eastern descent, Trump won more than 42% of the vote, up from 30% four years ago. Harris received just 36% from a community that gave Biden nearly 70% of its vote.
In nearby Hamtramck, the first majority-Muslim city in the U.S., Trump picked up 43% of the vote, up from just 13% in 2020. Harris secured just 46%, down from the 85% that Biden notched four years ago.
Stein received 9% and 18% in Hamtramck and Dearborn respectively.
The lost Muslim and Arab votes hurt Harris’s bid to win Michigan and its 15 electoral votes. The Muslim voting rights group Emgage estimates there are more than 200,000 registered Muslim voters in Michigan; Trump won the state by a margin of about 84,000 votes according to the latest results Thursday.
To Samraa Luqman, a Dearborn-based real estate agent and political activist, the shift was not a surprise.
Luqman, who describes herself as a left-leaning Democrat, said she campaigned for Biden’s reelection last fall but switched sides after his administration failed to secure a cease-fire in Gaza.
“I [voted for Trump] primarily to exact accountability for the genocide, but also in hopes that it will be immediately stopped when he enters office,” Luqman said in an interview with VOA.
In her own Yemeni-American family, the vote was split between Trump and Stein, she said.
“The No. 1 reason was to make sure Harris loses the election,” Luqman said.
Until 2000, Arab and Muslim Americans leaned Republican, voting for George W. Bush in that year’s close election.
That changed after the attacks of 9/11 triggered the Bush administration’s war on terror and unleashed a wave of Islamophobia.
In recent years, however, some Muslims, driven by a belief that the Democratic Party did not represent their values, started to drift back to the Republican Party.
The war in Gaza gave this segment an added incentive to vote Republican or third party, Luqman said.
“It really put the nail in the coffin for the Democrats for this election,” she said.
Gaza wasn’t the only pressing concern for Arab and Muslim voters. Kitchen table issues such as jobs and inflation influenced many votes.
“I think everybody that lives here, they look at the issues that affect them here: the economy, the education system affecting the families,” said Asm Kamal Rahman, a Bangladeshi-American community activist in Hamtramck.
Rahman, a Democrat, said he voted for Trump, his first Republican vote, mainly because of Trump’s economic plan. But like many voters interviewed for this article, he said his family was split, with his daughter voting for Stein.
Concern over illegal immigration, another top voter issue this election, resonated with some Muslim and Arab voters.
“I'm sick and tired of the career politicians promoting all of the policies that really hurt the average American, whether it be open borders, for example, that bring in all of the drugs,” said Nagi Almudhegi, a Dearborn data analyst, who said he voted straight Republican.
In the final days of the campaign, Trump courted Michigan’s Arab and Muslim voters, promising to end the Gaza conflict and other foreign wars, a message that resonated with many. Last week, he traveled to Hamtramck where Mayor Amer Ghalib, who is of Yemeni descent, had endorsed him, sparking dissent from some city council members.
“His outreach didn’t go unnoticed,” said Rahman, the Bangladeshi American activist.
Though Harris backed a cease-fire in Gaza and met with some community activists early during her short campaign, she was criticized by some for not doing enough outreach to win over Arab and Muslim voters.
“I think it gave an open field to Donald Trump to actually walk into Michigan, see them directly, shake their hands and say, ‘I want you to vote for me,’” said Zogby, a longtime member of the Democratic National Committee.
Chad Haines, co-director of the Center of Muslim Experience in the U.S. at Arizona State University, said the election divided the Muslim American community between those who wanted to send Democrats a message over Gaza, and others who feared a Trump return.
“So ... one camp is happy that ... the Democrats have taken, in a sense, a hit, and another is deeply concerned about the next four years,” Haines, a Muslim convert who voted for Harris, said in an interview.